After recording an overall decline in the market in the Power Engineering segment in 2012, we are predicting weak market momentum for 2013 and 2014.
The merchant shipbuilding market is still dominated by substantial overcapacity and is not expected to recover in the next few years despite a further drop in ship deliveries. The excess capacity is generating considerable price pressure among shipyards and suppliers and leading to a further drop in global shipbuilding capacity. The continued growth in offshore and special ships is expected to help ease the situation in the coming years as well. Likewise, there will be continued demand for government vessels.
Growth in the power generation market will depend on macroeconomic developments. The high growth rates recorded in 2011 were not repeated in 2012. However, we anticipate that the emerging markets will experience a slight recovery in 2013 and 2014. The trend towards more decentralized energy supplies, both here and in developed countries, is also likely to have a positive long-term effect on the business. The shift in power plants fueled by diesel or heavy oil towards natural gas power plants will continue.
The processing industry should continue to see positive, albeit slower growth in 2013 and 2014 in the emerging economies, which will also be subject to increasing price pressure. Due to the population growth in these countries, however, there is also high long-term demand for primary materials.
The market trends in the oil and gas industry is encouraging. We are currently seeing heavy investment in the exploitation of deep sea oil reserves, but also in the production and sea transport of natural gas. Due to its low price, natural gas will lead to new developments in, among other things, energy infrastructure, transport, petrochemicals and production, especially in the USA. The trend of using natural gas as an alternative to oil is generally having a positive effect in all key regions. We anticipate further growth in the oil and gas industry in 2013 and 2014.
The offshore wind market is not expected to pick up until the technical and financial hurdles have been overcome.